CareEdge Global’s recent webinar, “Divergent Growth Trends in APAC amid Global Trade Flux,” brought together leading economists and strategists to assess how Asia-Pacific (APAC) economies are navigating evolving trade disruptions. The discussion underscored that economies backed by strong domestic demand are comparatively resilient, while export-driven markets remain vulnerable to policy and fiscal constraints.
Experts noted that global trade remains fragile, with the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index reaching historic highs and protectionist trends altering global supply chains. Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist at CareEdge Ratings, emphasized APAC’s resilience:
“Despite uncertainties, APAC economies retain structural advantages—ranging from demographic strength and industrial adaptability to rising domestic consumption—which provide a foundation for sustained competitiveness.”
However, the panel warned of key risks, particularly for countries with significant trade surpluses with the US or deep integration with China, exposing them to exchange rate fluctuations and current account volatility.
Despite these vulnerabilities, APAC economies maintain strong buffers. The services sector remains a critical pillar, while manufacturing powerhouses such as Vietnam, Malaysia, and South Korea are moving up the value chain in electronics and semiconductors, enhancing the region’s strategic weight in global trade.
From a credit perspective, Asia-Pacific continues to attract investors due to favorable structural fundamentals. Economies such as India and Indonesia, with large domestic markets and young populations, are positioned for long-term growth. While India and China have relatively higher debt burdens, India’s downward debt trajectory provides comfort. In contrast, countries like Indonesia and Vietnam maintain relatively moderate sovereign debt levels.
Panelists noted that Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia are especially exposed to US-China trade frictions, whereas India’s large domestic base, growing services exports, and policy flexibility place it in a stronger position. However, concerns were raised over high US tariff rates on Indian exports, and experts stressed the need for structural reforms to boost India’s long-term competitiveness.
The webinar featured insights from distinguished speakers including Ping Chew (Global Credit Rating Expert, Singapore), John Beirne (Principal Economist, ADB, Philippines), and Jeff Ng (Head of Asia Macro Strategy, SMBC, Singapore). The session was moderated by Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist, CareEdge Ratings, alongside contributions from Kiran Kavala and Dr. Annie Mahajan.