The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) has released its latest global outlook for the 2025/26 cotton season, with production and consumption figures holding steady. Global cotton output is forecasted at approximately 26 million tonnes, while consumption is projected slightly lower at 25.7 million tonnes.
Trade Outlook
Global cotton trade is expected to rebound by 2%, reaching 9.65 million tonnes, aided by increased stock levels from the current season and anticipated demand from textile mills. However, the ICAC notes that future trade performance could be significantly affected by evolving tariff policies and international trade agreements.
Regional Production Trends
Production forecasts have been revised upward for the United States, Brazil, and West Africa, while China is expected to see a modest decline. Despite this, China remains the top cotton producer, projected to harvest 6.3 million tonnes, following a record-setting yield of 2257 kg/ha in the current season—its highest ever.
Consumption Pressures
Global cotton consumption is facing headwinds due to rising trade barriers, tightening regulations, and increasing competition from alternative fibers. These factors may continue to place downward pressure on demand in the upcoming season.
Price Forecast
For the current 2024/25 season, the ICAC’s A Index average price is estimated at 81 cents per pound. The early forecast for 2025/26 shows a broad possible range between 56 and 95 cents per pound, with a midpoint of 73 cents. These projections are based on supply-demand trends and were developed by Ms. Lorena Ruiz, ICAC Economist.
Next Update
The next issue of Cotton This Month, authored by Parkhi Vats, ICAC Economic Affairs Officer, will be released on July 1, 2025.